Does Performance Variability Increase Right Before Someone Quits?

Performance variability often increases in the weeks immediately before an employee quits, reflecting a specific pre-departure pattern of psychological disengagement that’s distinct from the broader, longer-term relationship between variability and attrition risk generally.

Why the Final Weeks Show a Distinct Pattern

An employee who has already mentally committed to leaving often experiences a specific narrowing of investment in their current role — increasingly inconsistent effort day to day as attention shifts toward the upcoming transition, producing a variability spike concentrated in this specific pre-departure window.

Why This Differs From the General Variability-Attrition Relationship

Sustained elevated variability over a longer period can indicate general attrition risk building over time, but the sharp, late-stage spike immediately preceding an actual departure reflects a different, more acute phase — psychological disengagement following an already-made decision, rather than ongoing risk still developing.

Why This Late-Stage Signal Has Limited Practical Intervention Value

Because this specific spike typically appears after the decision to leave has already been made, it functions more usefully as a retrospective confirmation signal than as an actionable early-warning opportunity — the more valuable intervention window is the longer-term elevated variability pattern that can precede this final spike by weeks or months.

The Short Answer

Performance variability often increases sharply in the final weeks before someone quits, reflecting late-stage psychological disengagement distinct from the broader, longer-term variability-attrition relationship — a pattern more useful for retrospective confirmation than early intervention. This is consistent with how ORS™ (Operational Regulation Systems), built by Matthew F. Stevens, evaluates pre-departure variability patterns.